Practical guides on forecasting, calibration, and goal-setting.
A forecast is only scoreable if the resolution condition was unambiguous before the outcome was known.
Overconfidence in forecasting is not a personality flaw—it's a measurable, correctable gap between stated probability and actual accuracy.
Before reasoning about the specifics of any situation, ask how often this kind of thing happens in general—that number is your starting point, not an afterthought.
Why most goals fail, and a structure — milestones, obstacles, resources — that holds up.
What a Brier score is, how it's calculated, and how to read your own.
A practical introduction to calibration — the skill of matching your confidence to reality.